Today's post is by guest blogger ProSense
The Bush admin chickenhawks are up in arms about a report that gives his surge a failing grade. According to the AP, the Pentagon is also disputing parts of the report.
Yet, in what Jon Soltz, of VoteVets.org, refers to as a complete meltdown by the military and Defense Department because of Bush's failed policy in Iraq, the commanders on the ground are bailing on Bush.
No amount of facts can make Bush and his army of spin doctors acknowledge the reality on the ground. Take this report, Iraq body count running at double pace.
The findings include:• Iraq is suffering about double the number of war-related deaths throughout the country compared with last year — an average daily toll of 33 in 2006, and 62 so far this year.
• Nearly 1,000 more people have been killed in violence across Iraq in the first eight months of this year than in all of 2006. So far this year, about 14,800 people have died in war-related attacks and sectarian murders. AP reporting accounted for 13,811 deaths in 2006. The United Nations and other sources placed the 2006 toll far higher.
• Baghdad has gone from representing 76 percent of all civilian and police war-related deaths in Iraq in January to 52 percent in July, bringing it back to the same spot it was roughly a year ago.
• According to the Iraqi Red Crescent Organization, the number of displaced Iraqis has more than doubled since the start of the year, from 447,337 on Jan. 1 to 1.14 million on July 31.
However, Brig. Gen. Richard Sherlock, deputy director for operational planning for the Pentagon's Joint Chiefs of Staff, said violence in Iraq "has continued to decline and is at the lowest level since June 2006."
He offered no statistics to back his claim, but in a briefing with reporters at the Pentagon on Friday he warned insurgents might try intensify attacks in Iraq to coincide with three milestones: the sixth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks in the U.S., the beginning of Ramadan and the report to Congress.
However, here are some statistics (from icasualties.org's weekly casualties trends) Gen. Sherlock:
After Declining to 15.5, the Lowest Level Since the End of 2006, the Fatality Trend Line Has Risen above 18 for Two WeeksA Proposed Benchmark for Evaluating Surge Success Based on the Fatality Trend Line (Blue in the Chart Below):
If the Fatality Trend Line Drops Below 10 for an Extended Period (At Least Ten Weeks; A Pattern Not Seen Since the 2003 Occupation), and
If it is Accompanied by a Parallel Reduction in Iraqi Deaths (to the early 2005 level of less than 100 Per Week, Down from 300-400 Now - See US vs Iraqi Fatalities tab),
Then the Surge will Have Achieved a Substantive Measure of Initial Success.
There are electricity and water shortages and the Tigris River is a graveyard. There is death, disease and displacement, compounded by chaos and rampant corruption. Obviously, Bush doesn't know who the hell he's sending the troops to Iraq to fight, and isn't even sure which decade he is in. Being AWOL does that to a person. It isn't clear to Bush that he cannot win the hearts and minds of people whose kids are being imprisoned and maimed.
To those of you who follow Bush around like flies swarming to dung, get a clue:
If the facts on the ground supported his claim that the surge is working, there would be no need for him to send an army of cronies to spew $15 million worth of propaganda. There is still time to regain your integrity. Consider the facts here.
On July 12, Senator Kerry spoke on the senate floor about the need to bring and end to this immoral war. He warned us that the September report would allow the President another opportunity to spin the war and the surge.
This allows the president to certify whatever the president wants, to waive whatever the president wants. And I promise to my colleagues, we will be back here in September having the same debate with the same benchmark questions and they will not have moved in their accountability.
Watch as Senator Kerry, in this July 12 floor speech, predicts the results of the September report and urges the Senate to push for a political solution in Iraq, and set a deadline for bringing our troops home.
Video credit: C-SPAN
Video credit: C-SPAN
Video credit: C-SPAN
Video credit: C-SPAN
Our thanks to Karen VH for providing the C-SPAN video.
